Nova Minerals Limited Stock Performance
| NVA Stock | 9.59 1.17 13.90% |
On a scale of 0 to 100, Nova Minerals holds a performance score of 8. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.55, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Nova Minerals' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Nova Minerals is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Nova Minerals' skewness, and the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Nova Minerals' current price movements will revert.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Mild
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Nova Minerals Limited are ranked lower than 8 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite somewhat unsteady basic indicators, Nova Minerals sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return (12.20) | Five Day Return (26.01) | Year To Date Return 31.56 | Ten Year Return 777.08 | All Time Return 777.08 |
Last Split Factor 5:1 | Last Split Date 2025-10-29 |
1 | Nova CEO to Present at the Redchip Metals Mining Webinar and Emerging Growth Conference | 12/08/2025 |
2 | ASX Midday Sector Update Technology Stocks Soar, Materials Struggle | 12/19/2025 |
3 | Nova minerals clarifies media reports on Pakistan antimony deal By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa | 01/05/2026 |
4 | Novas RPM Valley Drilling Confirms Continuity of Mineralized System with High-Grade Intercepts and Remains Wide Open in Multiple Directions | 01/13/2026 |
5 | Hot Stocks Everest Metals, Nova Minerals, WIN Metals | 01/20/2026 |
6 | Nova Minerals Director Louie Simens Steps Down, Indirect Holdings Disclosed - TipRanks | 01/26/2026 |
7 | Nova Minerals Update Shines Light on ASX Mining Momentum | 01/29/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 3.1 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | 4.1 M |
Nova Minerals Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 688.00 in Nova Minerals Limited on November 2, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 271.00 from holding Nova Minerals Limited or generate 39.39% return on investment over 90 days. Nova Minerals Limited is generating 0.9435% of daily returns assuming volatility of 8.4727% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 76% of stocks are less volatile than Nova, and above 81% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Nova Minerals Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Nova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 9.59 | 90 days | 9.59 | about 21.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nova Minerals to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 21.71 (This Nova Minerals Limited probability density function shows the probability of Nova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Nova Minerals has a beta of 0.55. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Nova Minerals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Nova Minerals Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Nova Minerals Limited has an alpha of 0.0408, implying that it can generate a 0.0408 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nova Minerals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nova Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova Minerals Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nova Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nova Minerals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nova Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nova Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova Minerals Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nova Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Nova Minerals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nova Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova Minerals Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nova Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Nova Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (11.02 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.66 M). | |
| Nova Minerals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Nova Minerals Update Shines Light on ASX Mining Momentum |
Nova Minerals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nova Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nova Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.1 M |
Nova Minerals Fundamentals Growth
Nova Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Nova Minerals, and Nova Minerals fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Nova Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -0.11 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0252 | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.93) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 406.08 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 37.59 M | ||||
| Price To Book | 5.04 X | ||||
| Revenue | (6.32 M) | ||||
| Gross Profit | (1.66 M) | ||||
| EBITDA | (8.77 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (11.02 M) | ||||
| Total Debt | 2.69 M | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 0.22 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (7.64 M) | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.41) X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 330.32 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 112.54 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (77.28 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 6.69 M | ||||
About Nova Minerals Performance
By analyzing Nova Minerals' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Nova Minerals' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Nova Minerals has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Nova Minerals has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Return On Tangible Assets | (0.11) | (0.12) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (0.12) | (0.11) | |
| Return On Assets | (0.11) | (0.12) | |
| Return On Equity | (0.10) | (0.09) |
Things to note about Nova Minerals Limited performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nova Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova Minerals Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nova Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Nova Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (11.02 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.66 M). | |
| Nova Minerals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Nova Minerals Update Shines Light on ASX Mining Momentum |
- Analyzing Nova Minerals' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Nova Minerals' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Nova Minerals' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Nova Minerals' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Nova Minerals' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Nova Minerals' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Nova Minerals' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Complementary Tools for Nova Stock analysis
When running Nova Minerals' price analysis, check to measure Nova Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nova Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Nova Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nova Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nova Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nova Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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